Merz Will Be the New Chancellor, but It Remains to Be Seen if He Will Go With the Left or the Right.

The 2025 federal elections in Germany have become a political milestone, with the traditional coalition between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) achieving victory, although without securing an absolute majority.

With 83% of the vote counted, Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU/CSU, declared his victory at 6:30 PM, obtaining 28.5% of the votes, which will allow him to have around 208 deputies in the Bundestag, but still far from the 316 needed for an absolute majority.

The outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, acknowledged the defeat shortly after, with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) falling to third place with 16.5% of the votes, its worst result since German reunification in 1990.

This defeat reflects a loss of more than ten points compared to the 2021 elections, which leaves the SPD in a very vulnerable position. Merz is now in a favorable position to form a coalition, with the SPD as one of his main targets to achieve a majority in a country affected by economic and geopolitical crises. 

Although the CDU/CSU could form a coalition with the SPD, the possibility of a new "Große Koalition" (grand coalition) between the two main German parties remains open.

This government formula, which was already used under Angela Merkel, could be the most viable if only five parties surpass the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag. However, the count is not closed and there could be some surprises. 

At midnight on February 24, the FDP and BSW parties were near the 5% threshold, which could complicate negotiations.

The Free Democratic Party (FDP), which in 2021 obtained 11%, has suffered a dramatic drop and at the beginning of Monday, February 24, only reached 4.4% of the votes.

Its electoral decline is one of the biggest surprises of the night, especially after the internal crisis that precipitated these elections: the breakup of Scholz with Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who pushed to save his own political interests.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new populist left-wing formation that deviates from Die Linke's traditional line, had a complicated and disastrous night. 

Although it was leading the polls during the campaign, it failed to surpass the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag, remaining with 4.9% of the votes.

Sahra Wagenknecht, former member of Die Linke, presented a protectionist and anti-immigration speech that failed to attract enough voters, leaving AfD as the big winner of the day.

The real surprise of these elections has been the gigantic advance of Alternative for Germany (AfD), which achieved a historic result, reaching 20.7% of the votes with 80% of the count completed.

The recently launched right-wing party, led by Alice Weidel, would consolidate as the main opposition party, doubling its support compared to the 2021 elections.

The AfD, characterized by its Eurosceptic, nationalist, and anti-immigration stance, is emerging as a key force in German politics, with more than 130 deputies.

This result reflects not only the growing support for the right in Germany, but also the external influence of Trumpism, with major figures like Elon Musk backing its agenda.

Meanwhile, Die Linke, the traditional left-wing party, had a poor performance, but better than in other elections, achieving 8.7% of the votes and securing 64 deputies.

The formation has managed to capture the support of young people, becoming the most voted force among those under 25 years old. With renewed leadership, Die Linke focused its campaign on social issues, such as access to affordable rents and the reduction of VAT on food, topics that resonated with voters.

Voter turnout was exceptionally high, with more than 76%, the highest figure since Germany's reunification in 1990. This high level of participation reflects the growing concern of citizens about the political and economic challenges facing the country.

Despite the uncertainty about the final composition of the Bundestag, Germany's political landscape has changed radically, with the right advancing at an exponential pace, the SPD in crisis, and a CDU/CSU that, although victorious, faces difficult negotiations to form a government.

The 2025 elections in Germany mark a turning point in German politics, with a CDU/CSU winner, but far from an absolute majority, an SPD in decline, a historically strengthened AfD, and a series of new political actors that will test Merz's ability to form a stable coalition.

While the option with the highest level of acceptance within the CDU/CSU alliance seems to be forming a government with the SPD, public opinion views the inclusion of AfD in the new administration favorably.

After the poor performances shown by Scholz's party and the growth of the right, it remains to be seen whether Merz will continue to give ground to the Social Democrats, or seek to renew and form alliances with AfD.