Trump announces a major alliance with India, Italy, and Israel

Recently, there has been growing optimism among military experts in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and United States President Donald Trump outlined plans to increase defense system sales to New Delhi, including stealth fighter jets F-35, in order to deepen the strategic relationship between both countries.

During a meeting at the White House, the two leaders announced plans to sign a new long-term defense cooperation framework, which will be ratified later this year, as part of the Major Defense Partnership between the United States and India.

Brigadier General Vinod Bhatia, who was the Director General of Military Operations of India from 2012 to 2014, highlighted that the defense sector is a major source of revenue and that India is one of the largest defense buyers in the world.

The joint statement indicated that both countries committed to intensifying military cooperation across all domains (air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace) through training, exercises, and operations incorporating the most advanced technologies.

Additionally, they committed to strengthening support for military deployments of the United States and India in the Indo-Pacific, including greater logistical cooperation and intelligence sharing.

Although Indian military experts have sought to diversify their defense acquisitions, analysts state that it will take years to reduce India's dependence on Russian weapons, even with expanded defense cooperation with the United States.

Analyst Raja Mohan from the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore explained that the expansion of defense cooperation will be a long-term process. "What India wants is co-production and more research and development in India.

"It's a long-term project," Mohan said. Additionally, analyst Rahul Bedi pointed out that, although an agreement with the United States for F-35 fighter jets could be significant, it won't meet India's immediate needs for more than 100 aircraft, as those planes won't arrive in the short term.

India has diversified its defense acquisitions from countries like the United States, Israel, and France, while moving toward self-sufficiency in this sector. However, it still heavily depends on Russia, which supplies up to 60% of India's military equipment.

Despite efforts, India still needs Russian equipment to face threats from China and Pakistan, especially due to difficulties in obtaining spare parts and upgrades.

General D.S. Hooda, who led the Indian Army's Northern Command from 2014 to 2016, explained that China represents a major threat, as it is surpassing India's capability in several areas.

The growing presence of the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean and Beijing's efforts to strengthen ties with neighboring countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal reinforce fears of Chinese territorial expansion.

The strengthening of the strategic alliance between the United States and India is also linked to the growing geostrategic competition with China, which has driven India to get closer to the American country and the Quad, a new strategic alliance in the Indo-Pacific between the United States, India, Australia, and Japan.

This alliance accuses China of economic coercion and military maneuvers in the region, which has altered the status quo and caused concern in Beijing, which sees the relationship as a counterbalance to China's rise.

In terms of acquisitions, India has reduced its dependence on Russia, but still faces challenges. Since the 1990s, more than 70% of the Indian army's weapons, 80% of the air force systems, and 85% of the naval platforms were of Soviet origin.

Between 2016 and 2020, Russia accounted for nearly 49% of India's defense imports, while France and Israel accounted for 18% and 13%, respectively, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

As India continues to diversify its defense acquisitions, analysts consider that defense sales can also help reduce the trade deficit between the United States and India.

General Hooda highlighted that it's "a win for everyone," as the United States will gain more business and India will be able to obtain modern weapons, which will also ease the pressure on tariffs and the trade deficit.

On another front, the United States has renewed its commitment to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), known as the “Golden Route,” as a critical trade route that connects Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

In a meeting with Modi, Trump highlighted the importance of this corridor to improve supply chain resilience and mitigate security risks, particularly in a context of instability in the Suez Canal.

The IMEC is also seen as an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its revitalization remains part of the U.S. geopolitical strategy under both administrations, Biden and Trump.

Italy, which recently exited the BRI, is positioned as a signatory of the IMEC, but has yet to define its strategic role. The city of Trieste, with its key port, could be an essential node in the development of the IMEC if Italy invests in its infrastructure and logistical capabilities.