The Economic Recovery Achieved by Milei Is the Fastest in the Last 20 Years.

The economic data from January reinforces the trend of economic activity recovery achieved by the Government of Javier Milei, according to a report by the Economic Cycle Research Center (Cicec) of the Rosario and Santa Fe stock exchanges, responsible for developing the Composite Coincident Index of Economic Activity of Argentina (ICA-Arg).

This represents the tenth consecutive month of growth, with an average monthly rate of 0.6%. "Meanwhile, the comparison with the same month last year indicates a 4.3% growth over the past twelve months," the study notes, also highlighting that since the lowest point recorded in March 2004, economic activity grew by 6.2%.

This performance exceeds the average of the first phase of the seven previous expansion phases, which was 5.8%. Additionally, the only recovery that, in its initial phase, showed a faster pace was the one following the pandemic, something predictable due to the nature of the recession caused by quarantines and restrictions, whose lifting allowed for a quicker reactivation.

One of the study's charts illustrates the evolution of the ICA-Arg indicator from 2004 to January 2025. In it, the dark gray bands mark the recession periods, while the black dots indicate the moments of change in the economic cycle.

This indicator gathers information from ten economic variables representative of different sectors and considered as coincident series. Among them are included:

1. Production of the main extensive crops.
2. Industrial activity.
3. Construction sector.
4. Total imports of goods.
5. Retail sales.
6. New vehicle registrations.
7. National tax collection.
8. Employment in the formal private sector.
9. Labor market entry rate.
10. Total real gross remuneration in the registered private sector.

According to the methodological description, all these series are adjusted to eliminate seasonal effects —that is, the typical variations of different times of the year— and extreme outliers. They are also presented in real terms, without the distortion caused by inflation.

The study also incorporates a kind of traffic light based on the monthly data of the different indicators, allowing for a chromatic visualization of the economic activity evolution. In this scheme, the color green indicates positive variations and red indicates declines, with the intensity of each tone reflecting the magnitude of the changes.

According to the report, in January seven of the ten indicators analyzed showed favorable results, while three recorded negative performance.

Additionally, when considering the annual evolution, there is an improvement compared to previous months, as eight of the series present positive year-on-year variations, while only two remain in negative territory.

Cicec also develops a "Composite Leading Index" with the aim of "anticipating" what is to come. "The behavior of the first ten months of this recovery shows a better performance than at the start of previous expansion phases, with the exception of the post-pandemic exit," the report says.